PEANUT FARMING INCOME, BREAK-EVEN POINTS, AND SENSITIVITY TO ECONOMIC CHANGES IN PONOROGO

Abstract

Peanut-farming studies in Indonesia commonly report realized income and R/C ratios, but less attention has been given to how far farm performance is from break-even and how coincident adverse changes affect that margin. This study integrates farm-income analysis, production and price break-even points (BEP), margin of safety, and deterministic single- and multi-factor stress tests using 2024 data from 31 purposively selected peanut farmers in Purworejo Village, Ponorogo. Farm records were standardized per hectare per growing season. The sample-average farm generated an R/C ratio of 1.77, while production and price BEPs implied a 43.36% margin of safety. Under a symmetric three-factor scenario in which price and output declined while total cost increased by the same percentage, the zero-income boundary was approximately 18.18%. These thresholds should be interpreted as downside financial resilience of the sample-average farm budget under the stated accounting assumptions, not as a probabilistic forecast or evidence of long-term resilience for all farmers. The contribution of the study lies in combining realized profitability, break-even thresholds, and coincident-shock stress testing in one locally applicable framework, thereby translating farm records into practical benchmarks for production planning, price negotiation, cost control, and extension support.