DYNAMIC MODELING OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES UNDER RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TO INFORM POLICY DECISIONS FOR BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Indonesia 
Japan Indonesia 
Abstract
Rapid climate change has intensified pressures on ecological systems, threatening biodiversity stability and reducing the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential services for human and environmental sustainability. Dynamic modeling offers a promising approach to predict ecosystem responses by integrating climate scenarios, biodiversity patterns, and ecological processes to support adaptive conservation strategies. This study aimed to develop a dynamic modeling framework for evaluating ecosystem service changes under different climate change scenarios and generating scientific evidence for biodiversity conservation policy decisions. A quantitative ecological modeling approach was employed by integrating historical climate data, biodiversity indicators, remote sensing observations, and ecosystem service assessments from forest, freshwater, coastal, and agricultural ecosystems. Data were analyzed through scenario simulation, spatial modeling, regression analysis, and sensitivity evaluation to identify ecological vulnerabilities and adaptation pathways. The findings revealed that climate change significantly influenced ecosystem service capacity, with severe scenarios producing substantial reductions in biodiversity support, habitat stability, and ecological productivity. The results demonstrated that biodiversity richness and habitat connectivity played crucial roles in strengthening ecosystem resilience. The study concludes that dynamic modeling provides an effective decision-support framework for developing proactive conservation policies, enabling policymakers to anticipate ecological risks and implement adaptive strategies for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services under future climate uncertainties.
Full text article
References
Abedin, I., Mukherjee, T., Kim, A. R., Kim, H.-W., Lee, S. R., & Kundu, S. (2025). Shifting shadows: Assessing the habitat and climate change response of binturong (Arctictis binturong) in the conservation landscape of the Asian continent. Ecological Informatics, 85, 102941. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102941
Aghaloo, K., & Sharifi, A. (2025). Balancing priorities for a sustainable future in cities: Land use change and urban ecosystem service dynamics. Journal of Environmental Management, 382, 125460. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125460
Bai, J., Wang, X., Zhou, C., Zhou, J., Tu, Y., & Sun, Z. (2025). Integrative analysis of ecosystem health, ecosystem services and species habitat suitability can enhance the spatial configuration of protected areas. Ecological Indicators, 181, 114457. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114457
Banerjee, O., Cicowiez, M., Honeck, E. C., Muthukumara, M. S., & Stapleton, K. A. (2025). Investing in forests Enhances ecosystem services and economic Growth in Cambodia: Evidence from the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modelling (IEEM) approach. Ecosystem Services, 71, 101695. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2024.101695
Bazzato, E., Calvia, G., Marignani, M., Ruggero, A., & Lozano, V. (2024). Senecio inaequidens DC. will thrive in future climate: A case study in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. Ecological Informatics, 82, 102783. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102783
Bianconi, A., Vascon, S., Furlan, E., & Critto, A. (2025). Leveraging artificial intelligence methods to map seagrass ecosystems in Italian Seas: Tackling human impact and climate change. Environmental Modelling & Software, 194, 106678. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106678
Bizama, G., Arismendi, I., Uribe-Rivera, D. E., Olivos, J. A., Jan, A., Valdovinos, C., & Urrutia, R. (2025). Climate change and freshwater biodiversity refuges in the Chilean Mediterranean Ecoregion. Science of The Total Environment, 1004, 180815. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180815
Cohen, J. G., Enander, H. D., Bassett, T. J., Wilton, C. M., & Cole-Wick, A. A. (2024). Using GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis to prioritize invasive plant treatment: A creative solution for a pernicious problem. Ecological Modelling, 495, 110807. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110807
de Araujo Fonseca, F. N., & da Cunha Bustamante, M. M. (2025). The importance of indigenous territories for the provision of ecosystem services: A case study in the Brazilian Cerrado-Amazon Transition. Ecosystem Services, 72, 101706. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2025.101706
Elleaume, N., Locatelli, B., Makowski, D., Vallet, A., Poulenard, J., Oszwald, J., & Lavorel, S. (2025). Uncertainties in future ecosystem services under land and climate scenarios: The case of erosion in the Alps. Ecological Modelling, 502, 111041. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111041
Ghasemi, K., Dolatkhahi, K., Qelichi, M. M., & Azadi, H. (2025). Assessing urban management resilience in response to rapid urbanization and climate change: A case study of Tehran. Urban Climate, 64, 102678. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102678
González Hernández, M. M., León, C. J., García, C., & Lam-González, Y. E. (2023). Assessing the climate-related risk of marine biodiversity degradation for coastal and marine tourism. Ocean & Coastal Management, 232, 106436. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106436
Grajales Noreña, S., Bernal, G., Cardona, O. D., Rincón, D. F., & Carreño, M. L. (2024). Holistic evaluation of climate risk to prioritise adaptation measures for ecosystems. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 109, 104593. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104593
Hulme, P. E., Lieurance, D., Richardson, D. M., & Robinson, T. B. (2025). Multiple targets of the Global Biodiversity Framework must be addressed to manage invasive alien species in protected areas. NeoBiota, 99, 149–170. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.99.152680
Kwak, Y., & Chen, S. (2025). Integrating seasonal climate variability and spatial accessibility in ecosystem service value assessment for optimized NbS allocation. Urban Climate, 59, 102314. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102314
Lathouwers, M., Beenaerts, N., Evens, R., Artois, T., Conway, G., Henderson, I., Shewring, M., Cross, T., Ulenaers, E., & Dendoncker, N. (2025). Impact of future climate change and land-use change on habitat suitability for a long-distance avian migrant under diverse socioeconomic-emission scenarios. Global Ecology and Conservation, 62, e03777. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03777
Lin, F., Zhu, M., Dong, X., Ling, S., Luan, B., & Pan, G. (2025). Revealing future effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Landscape and Urban Planning, 255, 105260. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2024.105260
Lin, G.-Z., & Chiang, L.-C. (2025). Balancing ecosystem services and climate resilience: A case study of the Gaoping River Basin, Taiwan. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 27, 100745. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2025.100745
Lin, G., Lan, S., Chi, B., Wu, K., Liu, Y., & Li, X. (2025). Synergistic optimization of ecological supply–demand: Integrating urban green space ecosystem services and dual ecological demands across multiple scenarios. Ecological Indicators, 178, 114133. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114133
Lin, Y.-P., Lin, P.-C., Wuryandani, S., Lin, C.-M., & Ros, G. H. (2025). Projecting food-energy-water sustainability through ecosystem service modeling under climate and land use change in a subtropical agricultural watershed. Agricultural Water Management, 318, 109737. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109737
Lin, Z., Peng, S., Ding, X., Ma, D., Zhang, R., Lyu, M., Shi, S., Niu, F., & Pan, X. (2025). Unveiling ecosystem service dynamics under land use/cover changes in a plateau lake basin: a trajectory-scenario coupled approach. Ecological Indicators, 178, 114118. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114118
Liu, Y., Huang, X., & Liu, Y. (2024). Detection of long-term land use and ecosystem services dynamics in the Loess Hilly-Gully region based on artificial intelligence and multiple models. Journal of Cleaner Production, 447, 141560. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.141560
Liu, Y., Ji, X., Xu, S., Li, L., Pan, Y., Wu, J., & Zhang, Y. (2025). Unraveling the influence of climate and land use change on ecological networks based on ecosystem services priority conservation areas. Global Ecology and Conservation, 64, e03923. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e03923
Liu, Y., Wang, J., Wu, Z., Li, S., & Dai, W. (2024). Identification of biodiversity priority conservation areas in China by integrating genetic, species and ecosystem diversity. Biological Conservation, 300, 110854. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110854
Pintado, K., & Knoke, T. (2025). Spatializing land-use scenarios to inform decision-making in an Ecuadorian mountain forest landscape. Journal of Environmental Management, 388, 125956. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125956
Pyron, R. A., Mooers, A. Ø., & Lo, N. Y. S. (2024). Nature’s value and biodiversity ethics in a changing world: Insights from a special issue and questions for the future. Biological Conservation, 298, 110757. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110757
Rasmus, S., Yletyinen, J., Sarkki, S., Landauer, M., Tuomi, M., Arneberg, M. K., Bjerke, J. W., Ehrich, D., Habeck, J. O., Horstkotte, T., Kivinen, S., Komu, T., Kumpula, T., Leppänen, L., Matthes, H., Rixen, C., Stark, S., Sun, N., Tømmervik, H., … Eronen, J. T. (2024). Policy documents considering biodiversity, land use, and climate in the European Arctic reveal visible, hidden, and imagined nexus approaches. One Earth, 7(2), 265–279. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.12.010
Redowan, M., Hewson, M., Abir, K. A. M., Hasan, F. E., Dey, B., & Kanan, A. H. (2025). Climate-induced shifts in the spatial distribution of invasive weed Sungrass (Imperata cylindrica) in the Asia-Pacific. Geomatica, 77(2), 100068. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomat.2025.100068
Rieder, J., Jahnke, M., André, C., Christiansen, H., de Wit, P. R., Faust, E., Green, L., Jonsson, P. R., Laikre, L., Laugen, A. T., Rafajlovi?, M., Sandström, A., Tomasini, M., & Volckaert, F. A. M. (2025). Seascape genomics: Assisting marine biodiversity management by combining genetic knowledge with environmental and ecological information. Marine Policy, 182, 106867. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2025.106867
Strange, N., Ermgassen, S. zu, Marshall, E., Bull, J. W., & Jacobsen, J. B. (2024). Why it matters how biodiversity is measured in environmental valuation studies compared to conservation science. Biological Conservation, 292, 110546. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110546
Tan, C., Yang, Q., Xu, B., Li, X., & Wu, X. (2025). Integrating ecological resilience into forest conservation planning to inform spatiotemporal prioritization. Biological Conservation, 312, 111491. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111491
Umwali, E. D., Chen, X., Ma, X., Guo, Z., Mbigi, D., Zhang, Z., Umugwaneza, A., Gasirabo, A., & Umuhoza, J. (2025). Integrated SSP-RCP Scenarios for Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use on Ecosystem Services in East Africa. Ecological Modelling, 504, 111092. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111092
Verma, D., Kumar, V., Shukla, A. K., & Pandey, R. (2025). Water provisioning services under changing land use and climate scenarios in the lower Shivaliks of Uttarakhand, India. Ecological Indicators, 180, 114334. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114334
Wang, F., Yuan, X., Sun, Y., & Liu, Y. (2024). Species distribution modeling based on MaxEnt to inform biodiversity conservation in the Central Urban Area of Chongqing Municipality. Ecological Indicators, 158, 111491. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.111491
Wang, L., Zheng, H., Chen, Y., & Huang, B. (2024). Ecological redline policy strengthens sustainable development goals through the strict protection of multiple ecosystem services. Global Ecology and Conservation, 56, e03306. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2024.e03306
Wang, Y., & Liu, H. (2025). Integrating landscape ecological risk and ecosystem services for ecological zoning and management in the Wuling Mountain Area. Ecological Indicators, 179, 114179. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114179
Weng, A., Liu, Q., Lin, Y., Muhammad Nizamani, M., Wen, L., Zhou, Y., Wang, H., & Li, B. (2024). Dynamic conservation strategies for protected areas of Fujian Province: From integrated perspective of the adaptability of habitat and carbon storage to climate. Ecological Indicators, 168, 112773. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112773
Wu, S., Guo, Z., Askar, A., Li, X., Hu, Y., Li, H., & Saria, A. E. (2024). Dynamic land cover and ecosystem service changes in global coastal deltas under future climate scenarios. Ocean & Coastal Management, 258, 107384. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107384
Yang, S., Peng, S., Li, X., Wei, X., Pan, Y., & Jiao, Y. (2024). Spatial heterogeneity and interacting intensity of drivers for trade-offs and synergies between carbon sequestration and biodiversity. Global Ecology and Conservation, 56, e03256. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2024.e03256
Yang, W., Tanner, C. C., Holland, P., & Qu, Z. (2025). Dynamic economic valuation of coastal wetland restoration: A nature-based solution for climate and biodiversity. Environmental Challenges, 20, 101182. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2025.101182
Yu, L., & Ma, Q. (2025). Synergies between bird habitat and recreational ecosystem service for urban development and biodiversity conservation in a coastal metropolitan region. Ecological Indicators, 181, 114408. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114408
Zhi, L., Li, X., Bai, J., & Shao, D. (2025). Prioritizing multifunctional conservation zones with dominant function based on comprehensive hotspots and bundles of ecosystem service. Ecological Indicators, 171, 113122. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113122
Authors
Copyright (c) 2026 Achmad Agus Salim, Sota Yamamoto, Muhammad Yassir
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
